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Having scored nine times in his initial seven league matches, City forward Erling Haaland has started the season on fire.

Even though this doesn't represent his best start to a term - he found the net 11 times in his opening seven appearances in 2022-23 and 10 last season - it nevertheless places him with a three-goal lead in the initial race for this campaign's English top-flight Golden Boot.

What makes this not one of his nine strikes have been spot-kicks renders it particularly impressive.

What Makes Haaland Special

Naturally, injury could definitively intervene in the destination of the Golden Boot, but there are two reasons why Haaland is such a strong favourite for the honor so soon in the campaign.

First, the total of conversions he has thus far netted - and, of similar importance, the number and quality of opportunities he's receiving.

Furthermore, the modest opening his typical competitors for the prize have made.

Chance Quality Assessment

A player's expected goals number (xG) represents how many goals a Premier League player has typically netted from the quantity and caliber of scoring situations he's encountered.

This doesn't represent a figure arbitrarily chosen by data analysts, but by historical Premier League data.

Upon reviewing at players' xG in the Premier League so far this term from regular situations, the Scandinavian attacker is obtaining considerably more good opportunities to find the net than anyone else.

Indeed, even if Haaland were no better at finishing chances than anyone else in the division, he would nevertheless have converted significantly more goals as the remainder of the league.

Chance Creation Breakdown

That is demonstrated by breaking down the number and quality of scoring situations that players have had in the top flight so far.

Haaland has attempted 29 efforts so far this season, twelve additional compared to every other footballer.

Interestingly, this is not especially surprising for him - he had previously registered more open-play attempts at this stage in the last two seasons (30 in 2023-24 and 34 in the 2024-25 campaign).

However, what's remarkable even by his standards is the quality of chances he has had this campaign. His attempts have had an xG value of 0.27 on average.

What that figure means is that attackers have typically netted the efforts he's registered at a rate of 27%.

Of players to take at minimum ten attempts, only Stamford Bridge player Enzo Fernandez has had simpler scoring situations to net per shot - because of a couple of tap-ins against the Hammers and Seagulls.

City striker's xG statistic of 0.27 is much higher than the 0.17 xG rating per shot he had at the start of last season.

To summarize, the scoring situations he has had in 2025-26 have been considerably more favorable to find the net from in a reorganised City team than those at the start of the previous campaign.

Previous Season Assessment

Beginning a campaign so impressively is, as previously stated, typical for Haaland. After seven games last season he had netted ten times - four additional compared to any other player and six additional compared to Mohamed Salah.

Yet it was the Liverpool forward who won the Golden Boot with 29 goals, a touchdown more than the Manchester City striker.

This season, while Haaland has started in blistering form, Salah has registered half as many goals and had half the scoring situations (xG) than at this stage last season.

Indeed this has been the least productive beginning to a Premier League term the Egypt forward has made.

Rivals' Slow Start

It's not merely Salah who has started slowly either. When examining at the eleven leading goalscorers in the Premier League last season, Haaland has scored as many goals as the other 10 players combined so far.

Be it because of fitness issues - Yoane Wissa, Cole Palmer and Jorgen Strand Larsen - protracted transfer stories in Alexander Isak's case or just due to the fact that their teams have struggled (multiple established scorers), Haaland's probable competitors in the battle for the scoring title have underperformed so far.

Continental Scoring Title Battle

Even as Haaland seems the distinct favorite for the Premier League Golden Boot, what about the European Golden Shoe that is awarded to the player with the most goals in Europe's premier competitions?

That contest is considerably more open at this initial phase because two elite attackers have similarly opened in great form, with 11 and 9 conversions correspondingly.

The circumstance Haaland has registered multiple conversions and has the top chance quality metric of the three players without yet taking any from the penalty spot positions him as the frontrunner.

Yet given that Kane and Mbappe are some of the most excellent finishers in European football in terms of overperforming their xG, the battle continues intensely.